In 2024, almost 45% of homes in the United States will face at least one type of severe or extreme climate hazard, such as flooding, wind, wildfires, heat or air quality.
With natural disasters like these on the rise across the US, climate resilience is becoming an important factor worth considering before buying a home.
And we can tell you where to shelter the hunt for a safer bet: America’s heartland.
In the latest Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com® Housing Market Rankings, 12 of the top 20 housing markets are in the Midwest.
The area tends to be less affected by climate hazards, which can give buyers more peace of mind when buying a home.
The two Midwest cities leading climate-resilient housing markets — Akron, OH and Appleton, WI — both saw just 1.8% of properties at risk of damage from one of the aforementioned climate hazards over the next 30 years.
Fort Wayne, IN, which was ranked No. 1 among major housing markets, there are only 2.3% of properties at severe or extreme risk.
The climate score captures the share of properties in a given metro that are affected by severe or extreme exposure to any combination of five climate hazards — extreme heat, wind, air quality, floods and wildfires — over the next 30 years.
Impact of extreme weather events
“Climate risk is a big deal,” says Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu.
“It can affect home values, insurance costs and the overall stability of a housing market.”
However, some buyers are more concerned about climate risks than others.
“In the real estate market, you find three categories of buyers: buyers who believe climate change is happening and factor it into their purchasing decisions, buyers who think it’s a hoax and don’t consider it a factor, and they that they don’t care. either way and don’t factor climate issues into their decisions,” says real estate professional and attorney Bruce Ailion, of Re/Max Town & Country in Atlanta.
However, the numbers are hard to deny.
In 2023, the United States experienced 28 separate weather or climate disasters that each resulted in at least $1 billion in damages, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
In fact, more than 3 million Americans have been displaced due to increased flood risks, First Street has found.
The financial pitfalls of ignoring climate risk
If your home is damaged by a natural disaster, you could face significant repair costs for both your property and your home’s contents—and insurance premiums can go through the roof.
“In severe cases, insurers may withdraw coverage altogether,” warns Lukky Ahmed, CEO and co-founder of Climate X, a leader in global climate risk data analytics.
Indeed, hurricane hotspots like Florida are facing an insurance cost crisis.
“Insurance is a huge consideration when buying in Florida — especially now with crazy rate increases of up to 40% year-over-year in 2023 alone,” says Nicole Brown, a real estate advisor in Pensacola, FL.
“There is also a large part of the conservation process that is very focused on securing a property.”
Ahmed says climate risks could lead to properties becoming unmortgaged, leaving homeowners with stranded assets that cannot be sold.
“It is more cost-effective to assess climate risks and take protective action now rather than waiting until it is too late,” advises Ahmed.
How to determine the potential climate risk of your home
Realtor.com recently introduced climate data provided by First Street to our real estate ranking parameters, taking into account the share of properties likely to be affected by climate hazards over the next 30 years.
This includes severe or extreme exposure to any combination of extreme heat, wind, air quality, flooding and fire.
Additionally, climate risks are now listed in the environmental risk section when viewing an individual property on Realtor.com.
“Homebuyers should definitely consider climate risk before buying a home,” says Ahmed.
“Ignoring predictive data will not change the reality that physical climate risks are already affecting property prices and living conditions around the world.”
“I’ve had clients who would have closed a purchase but the climate changed their minds,” adds Saddat Abid, senior property buyer and CEO at Property Saviour.
“One example is a family that first desperately wanted to buy a great waterfront property, but decided against it because of the growing issues related to rising sea levels and increased hurricanes.”
Major Midwest Markets
Buying in the Midwest, where climate risks are lower, can save you big money down the road, according to Ahmed.
Here are the 12 Midwest markets in the top 20 that tend to have the lowest climate risks, plus their average list price as of June 2024.
Fort Wayne, IN
Median home list price: $335,000
Climate score: 2.3%
Canton, OH
Median home list price: $255,000
Climate score: 2.7%
Akron, OH
Median home list price: $265,000
Climate score: 1.8%
South Bend, IN
Median home list price: $320,000
Climate score: 5.4%
Rockford, IL
Median home list price: $220,000
Climate score: 4.2%
Ann Arbor, MI
Median home list price: $545,000
Climate score: 2.7%
Appleton, WI
Median home list price: $425,000
Climate score: 1.8%
Columbus, OH
Median home list price: $400,000
Climate score: 2.5%
Toledo, OH
Median home list price: $275,000
Climate Score: 2.0%
Kalamazoo, MI
Median home list price: $375,000
Climate score: 3.6%
Springfield, MO
Median home list price: $345,000
Climate score: 2.9%
Dayton, OH
Median home list price: $260,000
Climate score: 3.1%
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